TreeFlow - Conejos R. near Mogote, CO

Rio Grande Basin

Conejos River near Mogote, CO

Calibration & Validation

Long-term Reconstruction

Background

The Rio Grande Water Conservation District (RGWCD) works to protect water rights and promote efficient and sustainable water use within the San Luis Valley in south-central Colorado, in the upper portion of the Rio Grande basin. In 2005, after consultation with the RGWCD, Connie Woodhouse developed reconstructions for four gages (on the Rio Grande near Del Norte, Saguache Creek, Alamosa River, and Conejos River) which represent most of the surface water supply for the San Luis Valley.

Metadata

Observed Record

Location: Conejos River near Mogote, CO
USGS Gage: 08246500

Source: Colorado State Engineer's Office

Adjustment: Very minor adjustments, nearly identical to gage record

Observed Flows

Period: 1912-1997

Mean flow:	241 KAF
Median flow:	243 KAF
Minimum:	79 KAF
Maximum:	430 KAF

Reconstructed Flows

Period: 1508-2002

Mean flow:	233 KAF
Median flow:	238 KAF
Minimum:	29 KAF
Maximum:	428 KAF

Calibration & Validation

Methods

A forward stepwise regression procedure was used to calibrate the observed flow record with a pool of potential predictors consisting of tree-ring chronologies from Colorado and northern New Mexico. The residual chronologies, with the low-order autocorrelation removed, were used. Four predictor chronologies were selected by the stepwise procedure for the reconstruction model. Validation statistics were computed using a leave-one-out (cross-validation) approach.

Predictor Chronologies: Trail Gulch (CO), Slickrock (CO), Natural Arch (CO), Montrose (CO)

Statistic	Calibration	Validation
Explained variance (R2)	0.67
Reduction of Error (RE)		0.63
Standard Error of the Estimate	44,848 AF
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)		45,095 AF

(For explanations of these statistics, see this document (PDF), and also the Reconstruction Case Study page.)

Figure 1. Scatter plot of observed and reconstructed Conejos River annual flow, 1912-1997.

Figure 2. Observed (black) and reconstructed (blue) annual Conejos River annual flow, 1912-1997. The observed mean is illustrated by the dashed line.

^ return to top of page

Long-Term Reconstruction

Figure 3. Reconstructed annual flow for the Conejos River (1508-2002) is shown in blue. Observed flow is shown in gray and the long-term reconstructed mean is shown by the dashed line.

Figure 4. The 10-year running mean (plotted on final year) of reconstructed Conejos River flow, 1508-2002. Reconstructed values are shown in blue and observed values are shown in gray. The long-term reconstructed mean is shown by the dashed line.

^ return to top of page

TreeFlow Home - Basin Data Access - Background Info - Applications - Workshops - Colo. River Paleo Perspective - Analysis Toolbox - Other Resources - About TreeFlow